In 2003, when the world's elite club called the first time China, India, Nigeria and Brazil to join them at the summit of the seven most developed countries in Evian France, addressed the gathering new Brazilian leader:
- Gentlemen, I would suggest you to meet next year in Brazil, to prepare for the time period, for about twenty years ago, when five of you will no longer be here. Because then the number one country in the world will be China, the U.S. number two, number three, India, Japan will be the fourth ... and I regret to say that others will not. And I'll be there ... So, get used to the developing world - said Lula da Silva.
It was a joke that Lula is five years later recounted the former head of the World Bank James Wolfensohn. Even then, however, Wolfensohn noted that the joke wore an important message to the established group in power. At the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, it has already mapped out the path from which it is hard to return.
The United States continues to lead militarily and economically, but in recent years, the world's largest power indicators are increasingly encouraged to think about shaken "American empire". U.S. still hold about a quarter of world production, three times more than China and Japan, the current crisis the euro is somewhat stronger dollar as reference currency, the U.S. military budget is still untouchable. U.S. spending on the military are six times higher than China's, even 11 times of the French ...
At the same time, housing prices in the U.S. fell by more than 30 percent, unemployment shot up to more than nine percent, and one in six Americans depend on the "dots" for food. The budget, even three decades ago in the black, is now reaching the proportions of the current debt of Greek tragedy. Washington political scene is paralyzed and the country's credit rating downgraded.
This, however, is not the first crisis, and is expected to be the world's largest economy, which has a global currency and brings together leading minds, to escape from the crisis - is strengthened. Do you?
Traditionally, the U.S. economic recovery followed a pattern of reducing unemployment as soon as the lower interest rates encourage consumers and the construction industry. This time was different. U.S. has more houses than it needs. Of America the black cloud looming recession.
Since World War II the United States intervened in volatile areas, defending their interests. From the "control" of China fifties, through addressing issues in Latin America over the next two decades, the Cold War and the subsequent "stabilization" of Eastern Europe and Africa, the United States on 21 century marked the struggle against terrorism and control the Middle East. Military spending, however, have grown enormously in Iraq and Afghanistan, increasing the dizzying, and inevitably, the external debt of the United States:
- America the 2011th Rome is the 200th Kingdom on or before the First World War - Empire at its zenith of power, but the cracks are observed. Experience taught that the decline of hard to stop when the first signs appear - military tension, the widening gap between rich and poor economies in outstanding debts, the people who use credit to live through the options, and sometimes an effective policy that does not work. High crime rates, the epidemic of obesity, pornography addiction and excessive use of energy might say something - the United States in the late stage of cultural decadence - finds the British "Guardian".
In other parts of the world - to reverse the trends.
Most populous country, China, and recorded the highest economic growth, has grown in other economic forces. Chinese rise as an economic, military and political power, is one of the biggest events of the first decade of the 21st century. The potential of India are practically unlimited with based economy. It is a challenge to American domination, is a significant counterweight to China, offering a unique culture.
From the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, the capital of the U.S. Cold War enemy, to modern energy giant, Russia as the largest country in the world has long been a powerful player in the global rankings. Brazil with vast natural resources, won the position of regional leader, and the growth and development of this country and make it a real player in the international arena. Finally, and post apartheid South Africa has become the economic leader of the Black Continent, and in spite of high unemployment and poverty, Brix rounded group of countries on the rise.
- The rise of China and India as new global players, like the ascent of Germany in the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th U.S. century, will change the geopolitical environment, with consequences potentially equally dramatic as in the past two centuries. In the same way that spoke of the last century as the "American century", the beginning of this millennium is the age of the developing world, led by China and India - according to the report which is titled "Project 2020" a few years ago published a National Intelligence Council the U.S. government.
China, India, Brazil, Indonesia ... moreover, could be the leader of a new system of international order that puts an end to the institutions and practices established after World War II.